Pennant Run Research

Baseball intelligence

pWAR explained

pWAR: One estimate of the wins a player contributed above replacement in the recorded season. It is PRR’s model, not Baseball-Reference WAR or FanGraphs WAR. Both pWAR and pWAR+ are estimates, including their compact summary displays.

Formula and interpretation

One estimate of the wins a player contributed above replacement in the recorded season. It is PRR’s model, not Baseball-Reference WAR or FanGraphs WAR. Both pWAR and pWAR+ are estimates, including their compact summary displays.

Value accumulates with playing time. Batting and pitching contributions are combined once for two-way players; do not add their displayed role totals together.

pWAR=Rbat+Rsteal+Rother running+Rfield+Rpitch+Rposition+Rleague+Rpark+Rteam field+Rreplacementruns per win\mathrm{pWAR}=\frac{R_{\mathrm{bat}}+R_{\mathrm{steal}}+R_{\mathrm{other\ running}}+R_{\mathrm{field}}+R_{\mathrm{pitch}}+R_{\mathrm{position}}+R_{\mathrm{league}}+R_{\mathrm{park}}+R_{\mathrm{team\ field}}+R_{\mathrm{replacement}}}{\text{runs per win}}runs per win=3+1.5×league runs per nine innings\text{runs per win}=3+1.5\times\text{league runs per nine innings}caught-stealing cost=2×league runs per out+0.075 runs\text{caught-stealing cost}=2\times\text{league runs per out}+0.075\text{ runs}

Limits of this estimate

Unmeasured range, arm, receiving and non-steal baserunning use neutral priors. Sparse records reflect retained opportunities, not invented games. No calibrated confidence interval or externally validated replacement for bWAR/fWAR is claimed.

Formulas and explanations are provided as-is, without warranties, and are subject to change. Pennant Run Research considers its original formulas and custom methodologies proprietary. Third-party formulas and source data remain subject to their respective rights and terms.

Full derivation, assumptions and source references