Baseball intelligence

pWAR+ explained

pWAR+: Estimated seasonal contribution relative to qualifying regulars in the same season, competition and role. Within one role, 100 is the average qualifying contribution and zero role pWAR maps to 0. Absolute pWAR compares wins across roles.

Formula and interpretation

Estimated seasonal contribution relative to qualifying regulars in the same season, competition and role. Within one role, 100 is the average qualifying contribution and zero role pWAR maps to 0. Absolute pWAR compares wins across roles.

Batting uses primary season position; pitching uses exact starting and relief appearances. Role index contributions add once, retaining playing time, so multi-role totals do not share the single-role 100 and 0 anchors. Reference floors are 3.1 PA, 1 starting IP or 0.4 relief IP per average team game. Current-season and sparse references are provisional. Missing role evidence leaves the index unavailable. Not a percentile, talent rate or full-season projection.

\mathrm{pWAR}^{+}=\sum_r100\frac{\mathrm{pWAR}_r}{B_r},\qquad B_r=\frac{\sum_{j\in Q_r}\mathrm{pWAR}_{j,r}}{|Q_r|}

G_{\mathrm{team}}=\frac{2G_{\mathrm{competition}}}{N_{\mathrm{teams}}},\quad \mathrm{PA}_{\min}=\operatorname{round}(3.1G),\quad \mathrm{SP\ outs}_{\min}=\operatorname{round}(3G),\quad \mathrm{RP\ outs}_{\min}=\operatorname{round}(0.9G)

Limits of this estimate

Unmeasured range, arm, receiving and non-steal baserunning use neutral priors. Sparse records reflect retained opportunities, not invented games. No calibrated confidence interval or externally validated replacement for bWAR/fWAR is claimed.

Formulas and explanations are provided as-is, without warranties, and are subject to change. Pennant Run Research considers its original formulas and custom methodologies proprietary. Third-party formulas and source data remain subject to their respective rights and terms.

Full derivation, assumptions and source references